When will energy prices go down and will things return to normality? Here we explain the latest predictions from Ofgem and others.
After several turbulent years, many households are wondering the same thing - are UK energy bills finally coming down for good, or is this just a brief calm before the next rise?
The good news is that prices have eased since the record highs of 2022. The not-so-good news? We’re still paying significantly more than before the energy crisis began.
In this guide, we’ll explore the latest data from Ofgem and Cornwall Insight, including what’s happening right now (late-2025) and what’s predicted for 2026 - plus a few practical ways to keep your energy costs as low as possible in the meantime.
The Current State of Energy Prices
The Current Picture: Autumn–Winter 2025
As of 1 October to 31 December 2025, the Ofgem energy price cap stands at £1,755 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit.
That’s roughly a 2% increase compared with the previous cap of £1,720 (July–September 2025).
Period | Price Cap (Dual Fuel, DD, Typical Use) | Direction |
Apr–Jun 2025 | £1,818 | Down 5% |
Jul–Sep 2025 | £1,720 | Down 5% |
Oct–Dec 2025 | £1,755 | Up 2% |
Under the current cap, the unit rates are around:
Electricity: 26.35p per kWh
Gas: 6.29p per kWh
Standing charges: ~53p/day (electricity), ~34p/day (gas)
These figures still reflect elevated wholesale gas and electricity costs, combined with higher network and policy charges that have gradually replaced some of the emergency government support withdrawn after 2023.
Why Prices Have Risen Slightly Again
The small bump seen in late-2025 came down to three main factors:
Network Costs - Grid maintenance and renewable integration projects are being passed onto bills.
Policy Levies - Expansion of low-carbon subsidies and Warm Homes support schemes add to suppliers’ fixed costs.
Wholesale Prices - Slight increases in European gas futures through late-summer trading pushed supplier costs higher.
While the scale of volatility is nowhere near the chaos of 2022, these pressures mean that for now, energy prices are stabilising, not collapsing.
Forecasts: What Will Happen to Energy Prices in 2026?
Forecasting energy prices is never an exact science - global events, gas storage levels, and even weather can all cause swings.
Still, several respected analysts offer a cautiously optimistic picture.
Early 2026 - A Small Dip on the Horizon
Energy research firm Cornwall Insight expects a modest fall in the January–March 2026 price cap to around £1,701 per year, with a possible floor closer to £1,710 depending on whether Ofgem introduces new fixed network cost adjustments (the “RAB charge”).
Other suppliers predict similar numbers:
Forecast Source | Jan-Mar 2026 Estimate | Direction vs Q4 2025 |
Cornwall Insight | £1,701 | Down 3% |
E.ON Next | £1,740 | Down 1% |
Octopus Energy | £1,736 | Down 1% |
This means a small fall at the start of 2026 is likely - a welcome, if mild, easing for households after two years of elevated costs.
Energy Help Guides:
Mid–Late 2026 - Modest Rises Return
By spring and summer 2026, analysts expect prices to edge back up.
According to MoneySavingExpert’s aggregated forecast, we could see:
Period | Estimated Cap Range | Expected Change |
Apr–Jun 2026 | £1,750–£1,870 | +5–8% |
Jul–Sep 2026 | £1,730–£1,850 | Small dip |
Oct–Dec 2026 | £1,733–£1,760 | Largely flat |
This reflects higher infrastructure and policy costs, not necessarily an increase in raw energy prices.
In other words: bills won’t skyrocket again, but they’re unlikely to fall much further, either.
How Can I Reduce my Energy Bills?
While current forecasts look very bleak, there are steps you can take to reduce your energy bills to get through the current crisis.
Improved Energy Efficiency
Here are our top tips for making your home more energy efficient that are either free or low costing:
Keep your doors closed in the evening
Pull over the curtains at night
Move your furniture away from radiators and vents if safe and feasible
Run your washing machine at 30° and load it as much as possible
Hang your clothes on a clothesline or clotheshorse for drying
Ensure your fridge has a temperature of 3°C to 5°C and your freezer is at -18°C or whichever figure the manual recommends
Switch off wall plug sockets when not required
Shower rather than bathe and try to have relatively short showers. Plus, if you have a power shower, consider lowering the pressure dial
If you have an immersion heater and you are charged more in the daytime, you should schedule it to heat water at night
Don’t fill your kettle up more than you need at any one time
Reseal your windows if needed
Think about installing a door sweep
Government Support: What’s Still Available?
While the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) has ended for most, limited help remains in place:
Prepayment Meter Support - Slight EPG adjustment continues, saving around £40 a year.
Winter Fuel Payment / Cold Weather Payment - For eligible pensioners and low-income households.
Energy Company Obligation (ECO4) - Funding for insulation and heating improvements in qualifying homes.
You can find current government assistance at gov.uk/get-help-energy-bills.
Recommended reading:
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